The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations
by
Dietrich Dorner
Description: The Logic Of Failure: Recognizing And Avoiding Error In Complex Situations examines common mistakes made in complex environments and offers insights into identifying and preventing errors in decision-making processes
ISBN: 0201479486
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There are reasonable accepted empirical approaches in accepted use today. Any team that follows these methods and reports honestly can be trusted more than a team that doesn't.
Also "trust" is a loaded word .. but mostly we just mean "predictability" - ex: to "trust someone" means to be sure that if you know what they've said, you can predict what they'll do. Much of empirical science is about offering up data and models that aid such predictability, so declaring "trust the science is extinct" is an outright rejection of these empirical methods (ex: randomised control trials) that have taken a long time to mature and take root as standard practice.
What is needed though is to be able to separate the science from policy making. As Dietrich Dörner has shown in "The Logic of Failure" [1], folks in the hard sciences don't fare very well when policy making in systems with complex causally interconnected parts is tasked upon them due to learnt heuristics that don't fare well in that world.
Let science do its thing - which is inform and educate. Let policies be made by those with more full understanding of the system into which changes need to be effected.
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Si...